Euro 2016 FAVORİSİ FRANSA (% 21,5)
Euro 2016 FAVORİSİ FRANSA
Türkiyenin Euro 2016 Kupasını Kazanma İhtimali ( %1.1)
Innsbruck Üniversitesi ” “Empirical and Experimental Economics” Araştırma Platformunu yapmış olduğu: “Predictive bookmaker consensus model for the UEFA Euro 2016 ” ( UEFA Euro 2016 için Öngörülü Bahis Oybirliği Modeli ) isimli çalışmaya göre;
10 Haziran, Temmuz 2016 da Avrupa’nın en iyi 10 arasında yer alan futbol takımları Fransa’da için bir araya gelecek; UEFA Avrupa Şampiyonası 2016 ( Euro 2016). Turnuvasında Avrupa Şampiyonu belirlemek için 24 takım yarışacak. İlk kez, takım sayısı artan önceki beş Euro turnuvalarda olduğu gibi 16 takım arasından kazanan olasılığı tahmin etmek için; Her takımın bir öngörü modeli 19 online bahis oranlarına dayalı yapılan araştırmada; Favori olarak tahmini kazanma ihtimali en yüksek (% 21,5,) oranla ev sahibi Fransa olarak belirlenmiş, Mevcut Dünya şampiyonu Almanyanın (% 20.1.) oranla ikinci, Avrupa Şampiyonu İspanya (% 13.7) oranla üçüncü sırada yer aldığı ve kupayı kazanma ihtimali oranları İngiltere için (% 9.2) Belçika için (% 7.7). olarak belirlenmiştir. Çalışmada, Türkiyenin Kupayı Kazanma ihtimali Türkiye ( % 1.1) olarak 14. Sırada gösterilmiştir.
Araştırma da ; A Grubunda Fransa, B Grubunda İngiltere, C Grubunda Almanya, D Grubunda İspanya, E Grubunda Belçika, F gurubunda Portekiz Gurup Favorileri olarak belirlenmiştir.
Ayrıca, çalışmada simülasyonlar ile bahis konsensüs sonuçlarını tamamlayarak ikili tahmin olasılıklarına göre ;
Euro 2016 Fransa ve Almanyanın yarı final oynama ihtimali (% 7.8) olduğu, yarı finali kazanma ihtimali Fransa için (% 50,5 ) olduğu ifade edilmektedir. Finali İspanya Fransa arasında oynama ihtimali ( % 5.7) Almanya- İspanya ( % 5,4 ) olarak belirlenmiştir.
( Çev: Doç.Dr.Sebahattin Devecioğlu, 09.06.2016 ).
Kaynak : Achim Zeileis, Christoph Leitner, Kurt Hornik “Predictive bookmaker consensus model for the UEFA Euro 2016” Working Papers in Economics and Statistics 2016-15
http://eeecon.uibk.ac.at/wopec2/repec/inn/wpaper/2016-15.pdf
Statistics Predict France and Germany as UEFA EURO Favorites
Predictive Bookmaker Consensus Model for the UEFA Euro 2016
From 10 June to 10 July 2016 the best European football teams will meet in France to determine the European Champion in the UEFA European Championship 2016 tournament (Euro 2016 for short). For the first time 24 teams compete, expanding the format from 16 teams as in the previous five Euro tournaments. For forecasting the winning probability of each team a predictive model based on bookmaker odds from 19 online bookmakers is employed. The favorite is the host France with a forecasted winning probability of 21.5%, followed by the current World Champion Germany with a winning probability of 20.1%. The defending European Champion Spain follows after some gap with 13.7% and all remaining teams are predicted to have lower chances with England (9.2%) and Belgium (7.7%) being the “best of the rest”. Furthermore, by complementing the bookmaker consensus results with simulations of the whole tournament, predicted pairwise probabilities for each possible game at the Euro 2016 are obtained along with “survival” probabilities for each team proceeding to the di↵erent stages of the tournament. For example, it can be determined that it is much more likely that top favorites France and Germany meet in the semifinal (7.8%) rather than in the final at the Stade de France (4.2%) – which would be a re-match of the friendly game that was played on 13 November 2015 during the terrorist attacks in Paris and that France won 2-0. Hence it is maybe better that the tournament draw favors a match in the semifinal at Marseille (with an almost even winning probability of 50.5% for France). The most likely final is then that either of the two teams plays against the defending champion Spain with a probability of 5.7% for France vs. Spain and 5.4% for Germany vs. Spain, respectively. All forecasts are the result of an aggregation of quoted winning odds for each team in the Euro 2016: These are first adjusted for profit margins (“overrounds”), averaged on the log-odds scale, and then transformed back to winning probabilities. Moreover, team abilities (or strengths) are approximated by an “inverse” procedure of tournament simulations, yielding estimates of probabilities for all possible pairwise matches at all stages of the tournament. This technique correctly predicted the winner of the FIFA 2010 and Euro 2012 tournaments while missing the winner but correctly predicting the final for the Euro 2008 and three out of four semifinalists at the FIFA 2014 World Cup (Leitner, Zeileis, and Hornik 2008, 2010a,b; Zeileis, Leitner, and Hornik 2012, 2014).
References.
https://www.uibk.ac.at/newsroom/fussball-em-frankreich-und-deutschland-klare-favoriten.html.en
http://econpapers.repec.org/paper/innwpaper/2016-15.htm
http://eeecon.uibk.ac.at/wopec2/repec/inn/wpaper/2016-15.pdf
The most recent version of all working papers can be downloaded at http://eeecon.uibk.ac.at/wopec/
http://www.turkishairlines.com/
http://www.uefa.com/uefaeuro/season=2016/teams/team=135/index.html
